供应链视角下的增值税改革影响研究

构建了一个制造商和一个零售商所组成的两级供应链模型,研究增值税税率下调对供应链决策和社会福利的影响.结果表明,下调制造商、零售商增值税税率都会使产品零售价降低,提高零售商和制造商的利润.下调增值税税率给制造商带来的利润增量大于给零售商带来的利润增量.制造商税率下调导致批发价降低,零售商税率下调反而提高批发价.社会福利的变化趋势与潜在需求规模有关.当潜在需求规模较高时,社会福利总是随降税幅度的增大而增大,且税率降低后的社会福利大于税率降低前;当潜在需求规模中等时,社会福利随降税幅度的增大而减小,但税率降低后的社会福利仍大于税率降低前;当潜在需求规模较小时,社会福利随降税幅度的增大而减小,增值税税率下调损害了社会福利.     

概率语言多属性群决策方法及其在新型智慧城市市民获得感评价中的应用

针对公众参与的语言信息多属性群决策问题，研究了考虑参与者满意度的概率语言多属性群决策方法。首先，根据参与者的语言评价信息确定并规范化概率语言决策矩阵。然后，对大群体进行共识分析，由最大化参与者群体的满意度构建线性规划模型，确定参与者群组的权重；构造正、负理想方案的评价向量，构建多目标规划模型，用拉格朗日乘子法求解属性权重；定义各方案的加权贴近度，并以此对方案进行排序和优选。最后，通过新型智慧城市市民获得感评价案例验证了模型的可行性和有效性。     

Collective Strategy Condensation: When Envy Splits Societies

Human societies are characterized by three constituent features, besides others. (A) Options, as for jobs and societal positions, differ with respect to their associated monetary and non-monetary payoffs. (B) Competition leads to reduced payoffs when individuals compete for the same option as others. (C) People care about how they are doing relatively to others. The latter trait—the propensity to compare one’s own success with that of others—expresses itself as envy. It is shown that the combination of (A)–(C) leads to spontaneous class stratification. Societies of agents split endogenously into two social classes, an upper and a lower class, when envy becomes relevant. A comprehensive analysis of the Nash equilibria characterizing a basic reference game is presented. Class separation is due to the condensation of the strategies of lower-class agents, which play an identical mixed strategy. Upper-class agents do not condense, following individualist pure strategies. The model and results are size-consistent, holding for arbitrary large numbers of agents and options. Analytic results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. An analogy to interacting confined classical particles is discussed.     

基于模糊综合评判的大学数学考核方式改革

独立高校数学课程的开设旨在让学生掌握数学知识的基础上,提高数学应用能力.然而现行的考核方式存在重考试结果,轻学习过程等问题.从传统考核方式入手,指出其不足之处,基于模糊综合评判法建立新型评价体系和数学模型,通过试点运行验证了新的考核方式的可行性、客观性、合理性和科学性.     

复合材料失效判据有效性验证方法研究

为系统地验证复合材料失效判据计算精度和有效性范围,给出了4种材料体系、6种铺层形式的层合板在单轴、双轴载荷下的失效试验数据,用以评估复合材料失效判据在单向层合板失效包线、多向层合板初始失效包线、多向层合板最终失效包线、层合板变形及层合板的破坏特性等五个方面的预测能力。并根据验证方法和有效性评估策略对失效判据计算精度进行量化考核,给出了失效判据在五个层面上的计算精度。     

Residues,dissipation and risk evaluation of spiroxamine in open-field-grown strawberries using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

The dissipation dynamic and residues of spiroxamine in open-field-grown strawberries were determined using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS). Spiroxamine application was performed according to Egyptian good agricultural practices recommendation. A QuEChERS-based extraction method along with direct analysis with an LC–MS/MS analytical method were optimized and validated, and the specificity of the techniques used was considered satisfactory. Good linearity (R² > 0.999) was obtained for spiroxamine within the range of 0.001–0.1 μg/ml. The mean recoveries varied between 97.1 and 108.2%, with inter- and intra-day precision (RSD) <4.9%. The limit of quantitation for spiroxamine was 0.001 mg/kg. The results indicated that spiroxamine degradation in strawberry followed first–order kinetics (R² > 0.9929) with an estimated half-life value of 4.71 days. Considering the Australian maximum residue limit (0.05 mg/kg) in strawberry and based on the results from residue trials with a preharvest interval of 14 days for strawberry, compliance can be expected. The present results could provide guidance to fully evaluate the risks of spiroxamine residues, preventing any potential health risk to consumers.     

考虑制动力影响的大型客车舒适性分析

利用有限元法和动力平衡原理,建立了具有层间接触的沥青路面和13个自由度的大型客车人体三维模型。以不平顺作为激励,随机模拟车流分布,在不同制动情况下,从时域和频域两方面分析人-车-路耦合振动下车辆和人体的动力响应。时域分析采用客观评价标准和主观烦恼率相结合的方法,频域分析考虑人体共振、人的心理和生理因素。结果表明:随着制动力增大,人体的竖向加速度幅值不变,俯仰、侧倾加速度幅值都增大,但是俯仰加速度增幅远大于侧倾加速度的情况,人的舒适性变差,烦恼率增高;在紧急制动时,主频段对人体共振、心理和生理产生的影响很小,但是次主频段与人体某些器官固有频段重合,对人体共振、心理和生理产生的影响是不容忽视的。     

Academic maturity of students in an extended programme in mathematics

ABSTRACT

This paper focuses on the students who are registered in the University of Pretoria’s academic development programme, named the Four-year Programme (FYP). The programme was introduced as a gateway for students who are underprepared but have the potential to succeed and then continue their studies into the mainstream science programmes. Our research focuses on measuring the change in the academic maturity of these students. In the theoretical framework that we developed, academic maturity is subdivided into two components namely non-subject based maturity and subject based maturity (mathematical maturity). This paper focuses on measuring non-subject based academic maturity. The survey used for this purpose is called the Student Academic Readiness Survey (STARS), taken at the beginning of the year and after the first semester respectively. The results of the surveys are compared to measure the change in students’ views. Results show that in all constructs there is a surprising decline in students’ perceptions regarding their own abilities over the first semester at university. We use the Dunning–Kruger effect to explain this unexpected decline, in that students seem to develop a more realistic view of their own maturity, which in itself can be seen as a growth in academic maturity.     

基于计算机视觉技术的茶叶品质随机森林感官评价方法研究

为弥补茶叶品质感官审评存在的缺陷，利用计算机视觉技术对茶叶品质进行快速无损评价研究。以碧螺春绿茶为对象，依据专家感官审评结果，将茶样分成4个等级；采用中值滤波及拉普拉斯算子对茶样图像进行预处理，并提取预处理后的茶样图像的颜色特征和纹理特征以表征茶叶图像的外形特征，利用随机森林算法对茶叶外形特征属性进行重要性排序；筛选出重要性较大的特征及随机森林算法中最优的决策树棵数建立感官评价模型，并与建立的支持向量机(SVM)模型性能相比较。结果表明：色调均值、色调标准差、绿体均值、平均灰度级、饱和度均值、红体均值、饱和度标准差、亮度均值、一致性等9个特征属性的重要性较大，且与感官审评特征描述结果相一致；当采用优选出的9个重要性较大的特征及决策数棵数为500时，建立的模型性能最优，模型总体判别率为95.75%，Kappa系数为0.933，OOB误差为5%，较SVM模型分别提高了3.5%，0.066，优选的9个重要性较大的图像特征与感官审评特征描述相一致。研究表明：利用随机森林方法筛选出对茶叶外形特征属性贡献最大的少数几个特征建立模型，模型性能就能达到很好的识别效果，模型得到简化，同时模型精度和稳定性都高于其他方法。     

不同声音偏好的游客声景观主观评价差异——以丽江大研古镇为例*

古镇作为集自然景观与人文景观一体的景区，具有丰富的声音类型。本研究以大研古镇为例，通过实地调研探究不同声音偏好的游客对古镇声景观的主观评价差异。基于游客的声音偏好，将游客分为偏爱自然声和偏爱人工声两大类。通过因子分析提取游客声景观主观评价的5个主因子：大小、音质、效价、偏好和唤醒。进一步分析发现，这5个因子具有一定的层级性，其中从大小到唤醒代表声景观评价从声音的物理属性向声音的联想评价逐级提升。其中在低层级评价(大小、音质)中，偏好自然声的游客和偏好人工声的游客无显著差异，低层级评价具有稳定性；而在高层级评价(效价、偏好和唤醒)中，偏好人工声的游客更关注古镇声景观的淳朴性和遗产性。因此，游客对声景观的主观评价可视为一种指标，判断景区声景所处的评价阶段，从而为景区声景观改善提供更有针对性的建议。